January 2026 Freight Outlook: What's Shaping Global Ocean Freight

As the calendar year is drawing to an end, the world of the logistical sector is entering a time that is marked by complex geopolitical shifts and a cautious return to important transit routes, and the increasing costs to comply with environmental regulations.

For companies that depend heavily on the international transportation system or ocean shipping, the month of December 2025 is less about the usual peak season, and more about navigating the structural shifts that will impact shipping rates for the duration of the new year.

This in-depth analysis from Atlantic International Express dives into the most important trends that are affecting Global Shipping, offering information that is backed by data that can help freight forwarders shippers and supply chain executives prepare with precision.

As a leading company in the world of international couriers, we understand that transparency and a proactive strategy are essential elements of a sustainable supply chain.

---

This is a summary of the latest developments that could influence shipping rates throughout December and into the coming year.

It is clear that the world market environment is a complex combination of softer demand and ongoing operational disruption.

The most recent data from the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) shows a stark divergence in the index: it has recently risen by 2percent to $1,957 per 40ft of container.

It was the second consecutive week of gain. However, this hides radically divergent trends across the major trade routes.

• Variable Rate Trends

  The rates of the Transpacific (e.g. Shanghai-Los Angeles) have continued to decline and drop around 7% due to the weak demand post-holiday. However, Asia-Europe routes are gaining. Shanghai-Rotterdam prices, for example, have increased by 5% and remained in an uptrend for the past four weeks, fueled by high numbers at the close of the year as well as early bookings in advance of the Lunar New Year 2026.

• Capacity Overhang and. Carrier Discipline

  A significant number of new vessels are coming into the market. Although this surge in supply should be expected to increase shipping forwarding costs down, carriers are managing capacity with blank sailings, particularly on the Transpacific, as a way to keep margins stable and avoid an abrupt rate decline.

• Geopolitical as well as regulatory costs

  The major developments described below introduce non-negotiable price risks and factors which fundamentally change the landscape of pricing, proving that rate volatility will continue to be a factor in the future.

---

Suez Canal: Capacity Returning, but Stability Will Lag

The most important development to the trade lane between Asia and Europe is the gradual, yet important, reactivation of the routes through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. After a year of massive diversions to the Cape of Good hope, which added between 10 and 14 days, and a significant amount of cost of fuel to the journey-, major carriers are now returning to the earlier route.

This change is a game changer in the logistics as well as Supply Chain effectiveness :

• shorter transit times

  A return to the Suez drastically reduces the duration of travel immediately, restoring the reliability of schedules while reducing the overall operation expenses.

• More Capacity Globally

  The primary implication for ocean freight costs can be seen in the release of significant capacity vessels back to the world-wide network. A rerouting process around the Cape of Good Hope essentially locked up vessels for longer periods of time, taking on certain portions of the market's excess supply. When the Suez is reopened and the capacity is redirected back into the Asia-Europe corridors. This could ultimately exert downward pressure on spot rates.

• port congestion risk

  Although the outlook for the future is that of medium-term stability, the immediate result is a higher volatility. The convergence of rerouted vessels into the key Mediterranean or Northern Europe gateways is likely to result in vessel bunching as well as an increased congestion at ports risks along those corridors between Asia and North Europe. The addition of additional vessels will only increase the necessity of Atlantic International Express to use our best-in-class schedule management and contingency plan.

The industry is now entering a period of transition in which carriers are careful about repositioning vessels. The forwarders should make advance bookings for January and December, since the rebalancing exercise could result in temporary schedule changes and even void sailings that are selectively cancelled. This is when the knowledge that a world-class freight company like us can be invaluable.

---

Black Sea War-Risk Premiums Surge After Drone Strikes

The geopolitical war continues to affect shipping, but the spotlight has now shifted towards the Black Sea region, which is vital for the global transport of oil, grain and other oil-related products.

Recent drone strikes targeted on vessels connected to this region caused an immediate and significant increase in insurance premiums for war risk.

• Escalating Insurance Costs

  Premiums for war risk vessels operating in the Black Sea have climbed sharply. Insurers are now pricing an expanded range of possible strike locations, as well as a higher chance of repeating. The significantly higher rates are an enormous, non-negotiable expense for the operators.

• A Broader Risk Analysis

  This increased risk is causing carriers to restrict vessel deployment, and charterers to pay higher cost of travel. This highlights how geopolitical instability continues to be a key aspect in the global transportation pricing.

• Impact on global Markets

  The rising costs and risks of the Black Sea reverberate through global energy and agricultural markets which increase price volatility as well as increasing supply dynamics for crucial commodities. Ships transporting cargo connected to the region may face inevitable surcharges, as well as a greater chance of delays since operators continually reevaluate their route's safety.

---

ONE’s Updated Europe Environment Surcharge Ahead of EU ETS Expansion

The third factor that will shape the outlook for freight is the definite growth in regulatory costs as a result of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The EU ETS is a structural component that will forever alter the economics of every trade lane that connects to Europe.

The shipping line Ocean Network Express (ONE) is one of the carriers to announce an update to the Europe Environmental Surcharge (EES), set to begin on January 1st, 2026. This will mark the complete compliance of the EU ETS phase.

• 100% Compliance with Emissions

  From 2026, transporters will be required to pay European Union Allowances (EUAs) to 100 percent of their verified emissions which is increasing from 70% to 100% in 2025.

• Expanded Scope

  The scheme's scope now includes not only carbon dioxide (CO2) but also the potent greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).

• Higher Surcharge Costs

  With EUA costs expected to be high, the financial impact will be significant. In the end, EU ETS will constitute an ongoing and increasing share of the total costs for transports that are moving into or out of Europe. Carriers manage this by imposing various, frequently adjusted surcharges. Shippers need to cooperate together with freight forwarding partners to evaluate these costs and then integrate these into the total supply chain budgeting.

As a trusted International courier Atlantic International Express helps you avoid these costs, while also providing expert advice on balancing costs and compliance.

---

Final Outlook for December 2025 and Beyond

The year's end perspective for the freight market is a complex one, marked by divergent trends across the key trade routes.

• Asia and Europe:

  Short-term projections suggest the possibility of volatility. The increase in spot rates to Europe due to the firm demand for seasonal goods in conjunction with the Lunar New Year bookings, has offset the increase in capacity that has resulted from the Suez Rerouting. Expect huge demand and congestion risks through January.

• Transpacific

  The rates are easing in the face of weak demand and attempts to support costs through increased empty sailings. The market remains favorable to shippers for the moment which makes this a great time to sign up for competitive long-term transportation contracts.

• Regulation Costs:

  Environmental compliance is the ultimate cost floor. Carriers won't be able to take on the EU ETS price, so shippers have to budget for higher fixed fees on European roads.

  If you are a company involved with transportation as well as transport such as Atlantic International Express, proactive planning is the key element. Markets require agility, early bookings, continuous monitoring of changing risks, and an understanding of all new regulations. We are proud to be an industry leading company in the world of international couriers and offer the strategic direction and reliable execution that your business requires to transform these global challenges into competitive advantages.

  Atlantic International Express is committed to providing transparency and high-quality service amidst global uncertainty. Contact our experienced team for personalized guidance on how to optimize your shipping through December and throughout the new year.

---

FAQs